For 49 years Fidel Castro has outfoxed and bamboozled the U.S. government. Ten separate administrations in the White House have been at a total loss in how to deal with Castro: Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton and Bush Jr.
Not one of them, with the possible exception of Jimmy Carter, has been willing to do the one thing likely to have worked with Castro and Cuba: open up travel, trade and communication. Instead, kowtowing to the Cuban exiles in Miami and the fear of looking “soft on Communism”, the Republicans and Democrats have let crass political motives and self-serving ideology get in the way of reality. As a result of being blinded by its own immediate interests, Washington hasn’t the slightest idea of what’s going on in Cuba or how the country operates.
Case in point: the upcoming election for President in Cuba. On February 24, the members of the Cuban National Assembly will elect a new president of Cuba. Will it once again be Fidel Castro? Surprising Washington and the American people, but few others around the world, Fidel has today answered that question, saying he will not be a candidate for the office of President and the commander-in-chief.
Is it because of his health? Well, yes, that’s what he says. But there’s more to it than just that. Both Fidel Castro and Raul Castro know that if the success of the Cuban revolution is dependent on one man—or two brothers—it is a failure. It must be able to continue without a Castro at the top. And now it will.
What the U.S. government has failed to recognize—since it likely hasn’t even read Cuba’s constitution—is that when Fidel realized he was too ill to continue to actively lead the country in its day-to-day operations, he did not “hand over power” to his brother Raul; the constitution mandated the transition, not because Raul was Fidel’s brother but because Raul was already the elected First Vice-President of the Cuban Council of State. And it was always intended that this interim position would continue only until the next election by the National Assembly.
Now Castro says he will not seek re-election, though it’s likely he wishes to remain as a member of the Council of State. Common wisdom (sic) in Washington, D.C. is that Raul will continue to run the country as the “new” Fidel. That’s nonsense. Much more likely is that Raul will return to his position as First Vice-President and the Defense Minister, and that the National Assembly—whose members have been elected by the Cuban people—will, with the total support of Fidel and Raul, name a younger man to head the country.
Likely candidates are:
Carlos Lage, the 56 year-old Executive Secretary of the Council of Ministers of Cuba who is often considered to be Cuba’s de facto prime minister. Lage is a former pediatrician who has been actively involved in various aspects of Cuba’s economy and is an expert on the U.S. and its relations with Cuba.
Felipe Pérez Roque, Cuba’s foreign minister, who at the age of 42 is the youngest member of the Cuban cabinet and the only member born after the 1959 revolution. Roque was a leader of student organizations and Fidel’s chief of staff for a decade.
Ricardo Alarcón, the 70-year-old doctor of philosophy who has been president of the National Assembly since 1993. Alarcón was formerly Cuba’s representative to the United Nations, where he was also vice-president of the General Assembly. He was active in Castro’s 26th of July Movement to overthrow Batista, organizing student guerrilla groups.
While Cuba’s National Assembly could elect someone other than one of the three above, it seems likely that it would choose someone that already has considerable experience and respect, and those three all fit the bill.
Alarcón would be an excellent choice. He’s brilliant and often seen as the heir apparent, but at the age of 70 doesn’t quite symbolize a younger generation. Roque at the age of 42 would be a remarkable choice, demonstrating Cuba’s (and Fidel’s) faith in a younger, post-Revolution generation, but our money is on Lage, who at 56 is from a younger generation than Fidel and Raul’s, who has the experience to deal with the economic challenges, and who has the knowledge of the U.S. to handle what will inevitably be changes in Washington’s approach toward Cuba.
We say inevitably because if there’s one thing Washington listens to, it’s capitalists; and U.S. corporations want more and more trade with Cuba, particularly as the U.S. hits economic recession, depression and even what we believe will be GD2 (or GDII if you prefer a closer analogy to World War II).
Yes, that’s Great Depression II, and the more the economy goes down the toilet, the more American companies are going to look for new markets. Why not a market 90 miles from our shore? We predict a new face (for Americans) leading Cuba to meet with the new face (for the entire world) leading the United States.
Update: Well, Chicken Little screwed up. Raul Castro was elected president, a very old general dating back from the Sierra Maestre days now heads Defense, and Lage remains pretty much where he was.
Too bad. The Castro Boys had a chance to make a dramatic change that would truly have thrown the U.S. government for a loop. Instead they kept the old guard in charge–with a Castro at the top.
Granted this means there’s no threat to the embargo. If both Raul and Fidel had left the top levels of government, George W. would have had egg on his face. According to the Helms-Burton Act, nothing changes while a Castro is running things (it doesn’t appear to say anything about a Castro being in the National Assembly). Since a Castro now remains in the top echelon, the embargo remains. And thus Cuba continues to have its excuse for anything wrong in the country. And, let’s face it, the Americans aren’t responsible for everything that doesn’t work.
Perhaps Raul just wants more time to deal with the transition and make sure everything is in place before the next generation takes over. Perhaps. Our money is still on Carlos Lage to run things in the future. But for now, it’s Raul and the old guys. Maybe they just couldn’t bear the thought of walking away while George W. was still in power.
It could truly have been dramatic - and a master stroke. Sigh.
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